Thunderpick World Championship 2026 South America Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Keyd Stars#155 in the world · win 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yawara#156 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Keyd Stars pick
56%65%
Keyd Stars · 14 mapsedge Yawara +9%Yawara · 13 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%42%
Keyd Stars · 8 mapsedge Keyd Stars +8%Yawara · 8 maps
MirageYawara pick
44%69%
Keyd Stars · 5 mapsedge Yawara +25%Yawara · 9 maps
AnubisYawara ban
63%44%
Keyd Stars · 4 mapsedge Keyd Stars +19%Yawara · 5 maps
NukeYawara ban
42%50%
Keyd Stars · 8 mapsedge Yawara +8%Yawara · 0 maps
InfernoKeyd Stars ban
50%50%
Keyd Stars · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Yawara · 6 maps
OverpassKeyd Stars ban
50%67%
Keyd Stars · 2 mapsedge Yawara +17%Yawara · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKeyd Stars remove Inferno
2. BanYawara remove Nuke
3. PickKeyd Stars take Dust2
4. PickYawara take Mirage
5. BanYawara remove Anubis
6. BanKeyd Stars remove Overpass
DeciderAncient (50% / 42%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:2
Keyd Stars 61%Yawara 39%
The model gave 61% on Keyd Stars — the map was taken by Keyd Stars.
Mirageprediction missed13:5
Keyd Stars 24%Yawara 76%
The model gave 76% on Yawara — the map was taken by Keyd Stars.
Model check result
Model favoriteKeyd Stars · 56%
Series resultKeyd Stars 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2