Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Walczaki#95 in the world · win 2:0series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisWalczaki pick
56%60%
Walczaki · 14 mapsnearly even -4%Revise · 1 map
Dust2Walczaki ban
31%56%
Walczaki · 9 mapsedge Revise +25%Revise · 5 maps
Ancientpossible decider
55%57%
Walczaki · 7 mapsnearly even -2%Revise · 3 maps
MirageRevise pick
56%56%
Walczaki · 5 mapsnearly even +0%Revise · 5 maps
NukeRevise ban
57%50%
Walczaki · 10 mapsedge Walczaki +7%Revise · 0 maps
CacheWalczaki ban
30%43%
Walczaki · 6 mapsedge Revise +13%Revise · 3 maps
InfernoRevise ban
54%50%
Walczaki · 9 mapsnearly even +4%Revise · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWalczaki remove Dust2
2. BanRevise remove Nuke
3. PickWalczaki take Anubis
4. PickRevise take Mirage
5. BanRevise remove Inferno
6. BanWalczaki remove Cache
DeciderAncient (55% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed16:14
Walczaki 48%Revise 52%
The model gave 52% on Revise — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Cacheprediction missed13:10
Walczaki 34%Revise 66%
The model gave 66% on Revise — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Model check result
Model favoriteRevise · 57%
Series resultWalczaki 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2