Digital Crusade Super DraculaN Season 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Acend#125 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAcend pick
43%62%
Echo · 3 mapsedge Acend +19%Acend · 17 maps
AncientAcend ban
63%47%
Echo · 4 mapsedge Echo +16%Acend · 11 maps
Dust2Echo ban
50%53%
Echo · 0 mapsnearly even -3%Acend · 13 maps
OverpassAcend ban
44%33%
Echo · 5 mapsedge Echo +11%Acend · 8 maps
InfernoEcho pick
50%50%
Echo · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Acend · 8 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%60%
Echo · 2 mapsedge Acend +10%Acend · 1 map
DefaultEcho ban
50%71%
Echo · 0 mapsedge Acend +21%Acend · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEcho remove Dust2
2. BanAcend remove Overpass
3. PickEcho take Inferno
4. PickAcend take Mirage
5. BanAcend remove Ancient
6. BanEcho remove Default
DeciderAnubis (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
Echo 29%Acend 71%
The model gave 71% on Acend — the map was taken by Echo.
Overpassprediction missed11:13
Echo 64%Acend 36%
The model gave 64% on Echo — the map was taken by Acend.
Infernoprediction missed7:13
Echo 50%Acend 50%
The model gave 50% on Echo — the map was taken by Acend.
Model check result
Model favoriteAcend · 52%
Series resultAcend 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3