Digital Crusade Super DraculaN Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Acend#125 in the world · win 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
INFINITE#71 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAcend pick
60%60%
Acend · 16 mapsnearly even +0%INFINITE · 11 maps
Dust2Acend ban
53%60%
Acend · 13 mapsedge INFINITE +7%INFINITE · 6 maps
AncientINFINITE pick
43%60%
Acend · 10 mapsedge INFINITE +17%INFINITE · 6 maps
InfernoINFINITE ban
50%57%
Acend · 8 mapsedge INFINITE +7%INFINITE · 3 maps
NukeAcend ban
50%46%
Acend · 0 mapsnearly even +4%INFINITE · 9 maps
OverpassINFINITE ban
33%40%
Acend · 8 mapsedge INFINITE +7%INFINITE · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
71%60%
Acend · 3 mapsedge Acend +11%INFINITE · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAcend remove Nuke
2. BanINFINITE remove Overpass
3. PickAcend take Mirage
4. PickINFINITE take Ancient
5. BanINFINITE remove Inferno
6. BanAcend remove Dust2
DeciderDefault (71% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:5
Acend 31%INFINITE 69%
The model gave 69% on INFINITE — the map was taken by Acend.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
Acend 53%INFINITE 47%
The model gave 53% on Acend — the map was taken by Acend.
Model check result
Model favoriteAcend · 60%
Series resultAcend 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2