European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Entropy#159 in the world · win 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
DONSTU#221 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisDONSTU pick
40%50%
Entropy · 6 mapsedge DONSTU +10%DONSTU · 10 maps
AncientEntropy pick
55%44%
Entropy · 7 mapsedge Entropy +11%DONSTU · 5 maps
Dust2Entropy ban
40%50%
Entropy · 1 mapedge DONSTU +10%DONSTU · 8 maps
InfernoDONSTU ban
33%44%
Entropy · 2 mapsedge DONSTU +11%DONSTU · 5 maps
MirageDONSTU ban
36%50%
Entropy · 7 mapsedge DONSTU +14%DONSTU · 0 maps
Overpasspossible decider
38%60%
Entropy · 4 mapsedge DONSTU +22%DONSTU · 1 map
NukeEntropy ban
50%33%
Entropy · 0 mapsedge Entropy +17%DONSTU · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEntropy remove Nuke
2. BanDONSTU remove Mirage
3. PickEntropy take Ancient
4. PickDONSTU take Anubis
5. BanDONSTU remove Inferno
6. BanEntropy remove Dust2
DeciderOverpass (38% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:10
Entropy 37%DONSTU 63%
The model gave 63% on DONSTU — the map was taken by Entropy.
Ancientprediction missed7:13
Entropy 63%DONSTU 37%
The model gave 63% on Entropy — the map was taken by DONSTU.
Dust2prediction missed13:7
Entropy 40%DONSTU 60%
The model gave 60% on DONSTU — the map was taken by Entropy.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntropy · 51%
Series resultEntropy 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3