Thunderpick World Championship 2026 South America Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Keyd Stars#155 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Keyd Stars pick
56%65%
Keyd Stars · 14 mapsedge UNO MILLE +9%UNO MILLE · 13 maps
Nukepossible decider
45%63%
Keyd Stars · 7 mapsedge UNO MILLE +18%UNO MILLE · 4 maps
MirageUNO MILLE ban
44%44%
Keyd Stars · 5 mapsnearly even +0%UNO MILLE · 5 maps
AnubisUNO MILLE pick
63%67%
Keyd Stars · 4 mapsnearly even -4%UNO MILLE · 5 maps
AncientUNO MILLE ban
55%40%
Keyd Stars · 7 mapsedge Keyd Stars +15%UNO MILLE · 1 map
OverpassKeyd Stars ban
50%60%
Keyd Stars · 2 mapsedge UNO MILLE +10%UNO MILLE · 6 maps
InfernoKeyd Stars ban
50%64%
Keyd Stars · 0 mapsedge UNO MILLE +14%UNO MILLE · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKeyd Stars remove Inferno
2. BanUNO MILLE remove Ancient
3. PickKeyd Stars take Dust2
4. PickUNO MILLE take Anubis
5. BanUNO MILLE remove Mirage
6. BanKeyd Stars remove Overpass
DeciderNuke (45% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed11:13
Keyd Stars 67%UNO MILLE 33%
The model gave 67% on Keyd Stars — the map was taken by UNO MILLE.
Nukeprediction correct9:13
Keyd Stars 31%UNO MILLE 69%
The model gave 69% on UNO MILLE — the map was taken by UNO MILLE.
Model check result
Model favoriteUNO MILLE · 59%
Series resultUNO MILLE 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2