Tipsport Open Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
aimclub#98 in the world · win 2:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
INFURITY#115 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientaimclub ban
29%50%
aimclub · 3 mapsedge INFURITY +21%INFURITY · 0 maps
Dust2INFURITY pick
43%50%
aimclub · 3 mapsedge INFURITY +7%INFURITY · 0 maps
Mirageaimclub pick
57%50%
aimclub · 3 mapsedge aimclub +7%INFURITY · 0 maps
CacheINFURITY ban
50%50%
aimclub · 2 mapsnearly even +0%INFURITY · 0 maps
AnubisINFURITY ban
60%50%
aimclub · 1 mapedge aimclub +10%INFURITY · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banaimclub remove Ancient
2. BanINFURITY remove Anubis
3. Pickaimclub take Mirage
4. PickINFURITY take Dust2
5. BanINFURITY remove Cache
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:6
aimclub 57%INFURITY 43%
The model gave 57% on aimclub — the map was taken by aimclub.
Ancientprediction correct1:13
aimclub 31%INFURITY 69%
The model gave 69% on INFURITY — the map was taken by INFURITY.
Infernoprediction correct13:9
aimclub 50%INFURITY 50%
The model gave 50% on aimclub — the map was taken by aimclub.
Model check result
Model favoriteaimclub · 55%
Series resultaimclub 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3