Tipsport Open Cup 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Diamant#210 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisFAFO ban
50%40%
FAFO · 0 mapsedge FAFO +10%Diamant · 1 map
MirageDiamant ban
50%40%
FAFO · 0 mapsedge FAFO +10%Diamant · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFAFO remove Anubis
2. BanDiamant remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct16:12
FAFO 63%Diamant 37%
The model gave 63% on FAFO — the map was taken by FAFO.
Ancientprediction correct9:13
FAFO 47%Diamant 53%
The model gave 53% on Diamant — the map was taken by Diamant.
Anubisprediction correct13:9
FAFO 60%Diamant 40%
The model gave 60% on FAFO — the map was taken by FAFO.
Model check result
Model favoriteDiamant · 54%
Series resultFAFO 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3