Tipsport Open Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Four Magic#181 in the world · win 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
95 Vikings#221 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancient95 Vikings ban
67%40%
Four Magic · 2 mapsedge Four Magic +27%95 Vikings · 1 map
AnubisFour Magic pick
60%50%
Four Magic · 1 mapedge Four Magic +10%95 Vikings · 2 maps
Cache95 Vikings pick
60%40%
Four Magic · 1 mapedge Four Magic +20%95 Vikings · 1 map
Dust2Four Magic ban
50%40%
Four Magic · 0 mapsedge Four Magic +10%95 Vikings · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFour Magic remove Dust2
2. Ban95 Vikings remove Ancient
3. PickFour Magic take Anubis
4. Pick95 Vikings take Cache
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:5
Four Magic 67%95 Vikings 33%
The model gave 67% on Four Magic — the map was taken by Four Magic.
Anubisprediction correct13:11
Four Magic 63%95 Vikings 37%
The model gave 63% on Four Magic — the map was taken by Four Magic.
Model check result
Model favoriteFour Magic · 50%
Series resultFour Magic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2