Tipsport Open Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
BRUTE#74 in the world · win 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Four Magic#181 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2BRUTE pick
61%50%
BRUTE · 19 mapsedge BRUTE +11%Four Magic · 2 maps
AnubisFour Magic pick
47%67%
BRUTE · 11 mapsedge Four Magic +20%Four Magic · 2 maps
CacheBRUTE ban
50%67%
BRUTE · 10 mapsedge Four Magic +17%Four Magic · 2 maps
Miragepossible decider
57%50%
BRUTE · 10 mapsedge BRUTE +7%Four Magic · 2 maps
NukeFour Magic ban
62%50%
BRUTE · 9 mapsedge BRUTE +12%Four Magic · 0 maps
AncientBRUTE ban
33%57%
BRUTE · 2 mapsedge Four Magic +24%Four Magic · 3 maps
DefaultFour Magic ban
43%50%
BRUTE · 3 mapsedge Four Magic +7%Four Magic · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBRUTE remove Ancient
2. BanFour Magic remove Nuke
3. PickBRUTE take Dust2
4. PickFour Magic take Anubis
5. BanFour Magic remove Default
6. BanBRUTE remove Cache
DeciderMirage (57% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:1
BRUTE 54%Four Magic 46%
The model gave 54% on BRUTE — the map was taken by BRUTE.
Dust2prediction correct13:5
BRUTE 64%Four Magic 36%
The model gave 64% on BRUTE — the map was taken by BRUTE.
Model check result
Model favoriteBRUTE · 69%
Series resultBRUTE 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2