Tipsport Open Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Metizport#52 in the world · win 2:1series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:1
aimclub#98 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Mirageaimclub pick
60%70%
Metizport · 11 mapsedge aimclub +10%aimclub · 6 maps
Nukeaimclub ban
52%50%
Metizport · 17 mapsnearly even +2%aimclub · 0 maps
InfernoMetizport pick
65%67%
Metizport · 13 mapsnearly even -2%aimclub · 2 maps
Ancientaimclub ban
58%33%
Metizport · 8 mapsedge Metizport +25%aimclub · 5 maps
AnubisMetizport ban
55%67%
Metizport · 7 mapsedge aimclub +12%aimclub · 5 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%57%
Metizport · 6 mapsedge aimclub +7%aimclub · 3 maps
Dust2Metizport ban
50%33%
Metizport · 0 mapsedge Metizport +17%aimclub · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMetizport remove Dust2
2. Banaimclub remove Nuke
3. PickMetizport take Inferno
4. Pickaimclub take Mirage
5. Banaimclub remove Ancient
6. BanMetizport remove Anubis
DeciderCache (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:6
Metizport 36%aimclub 64%
The model gave 64% on aimclub — the map was taken by Metizport.
Infernoprediction missed7:13
Metizport 51%aimclub 49%
The model gave 51% on Metizport — the map was taken by aimclub.
Ancientprediction correct13:7
Metizport 74%aimclub 26%
The model gave 74% on Metizport — the map was taken by Metizport.
Model check result
Model favoriteMetizport · 74%
Series resultMetizport 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3