Tipsport Open Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circle Academy#80 in the world · win 2:0series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BRUTE#74 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2BRUTE pick
62%63%
Inner Circle Academy · 30 mapsnearly even -1%BRUTE · 20 maps
AnubisInner Circle Academy pick
60%47%
Inner Circle Academy · 21 mapedge Inner Circle Academy +13%BRUTE · 11 maps
AncientBRUTE ban
52%33%
Inner Circle Academy · 25 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +19%BRUTE · 2 maps
Nukepossible decider
52%62%
Inner Circle Academy · 17 mapsedge BRUTE +10%BRUTE · 9 maps
MirageInner Circle Academy ban
47%60%
Inner Circle Academy · 13 mapsedge BRUTE +13%BRUTE · 11 maps
CacheInner Circle Academy ban
42%50%
Inner Circle Academy · 8 mapsedge BRUTE +8%BRUTE · 10 maps
DefaultBRUTE ban
50%43%
Inner Circle Academy · 4 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +7%BRUTE · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanInner Circle Academy remove Cache
2. BanBRUTE remove Ancient
3. PickInner Circle Academy take Anubis
4. PickBRUTE take Dust2
5. BanBRUTE remove Default
6. BanInner Circle Academy remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (52% / 62%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:10
Inner Circle Academy 66%BRUTE 34%
The model gave 66% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Mirageprediction missed13:10
Inner Circle Academy 34%BRUTE 66%
The model gave 66% on BRUTE — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteBRUTE · 75%
Series resultInner Circle Academy 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2