Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Bushido Wildcats#82 in the world · win 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Endless Journey#172 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Bushido Wildcats pick
70%67%
Bushido Wildcats · 26 mapsnearly even +3%Endless Journey · 11 maps
MirageEndless Journey pick
59%59%
Bushido Wildcats · 18 mapsnearly even +0%Endless Journey · 13 maps
NukeBushido Wildcats ban
52%54%
Bushido Wildcats · 17 mapsnearly even -2%Endless Journey · 9 maps
InfernoBushido Wildcats ban
55%40%
Bushido Wildcats · 7 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +15%Endless Journey · 6 maps
AnubisEndless Journey ban
67%38%
Bushido Wildcats · 5 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +29%Endless Journey · 4 maps
CacheEndless Journey ban
55%50%
Bushido Wildcats · 7 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +5%Endless Journey · 2 maps
Defaultpossible decider
71%60%
Bushido Wildcats · 3 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +11%Endless Journey · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBushido Wildcats remove Inferno
2. BanEndless Journey remove Cache
3. PickBushido Wildcats take Dust2
4. PickEndless Journey take Mirage
5. BanEndless Journey remove Anubis
6. BanBushido Wildcats remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (71% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
Bushido Wildcats 57%Endless Journey 43%
The model gave 57% on Bushido Wildcats — the map was taken by Bushido Wildcats.
Mirageprediction missed13:7
Bushido Wildcats 47%Endless Journey 53%
The model gave 53% on Endless Journey — the map was taken by Bushido Wildcats.
Model check result
Model favoriteBushido Wildcats · 74%
Series resultBushido Wildcats 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2