European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Sashi Academy#169 in the world · win 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
eternal premium#208 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeSashi Academy ban
29%45%
Sashi Academy · 3 mapsedge eternal premium +16%eternal premium · 7 maps
AncientSashi Academy ban
43%57%
Sashi Academy · 3 mapsedge eternal premium +14%eternal premium · 3 maps
InfernoSashi Academy pick
63%60%
Sashi Academy · 4 mapsnearly even +3%eternal premium · 1 map
Mirageeternal premium ban
50%33%
Sashi Academy · 2 mapsedge Sashi Academy +17%eternal premium · 2 maps
Anubiseternal premium ban
50%29%
Sashi Academy · 0 mapsedge Sashi Academy +21%eternal premium · 3 maps
Overpasseternal premium pick
40%60%
Sashi Academy · 1 mapedge eternal premium +20%eternal premium · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSashi Academy remove Nuke
2. Baneternal premium remove Anubis
3. PickSashi Academy take Inferno
4. Picketernal premium take Overpass
5. Baneternal premium remove Mirage
6. BanSashi Academy remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:1
Sashi Academy 64%eternal premium 36%
The model gave 64% on Sashi Academy — the map was taken by Sashi Academy.
Infernoprediction missed10:13
Sashi Academy 56%eternal premium 44%
The model gave 56% on Sashi Academy — the map was taken by eternal premium.
Ancientprediction missed19:16
Sashi Academy 36%eternal premium 64%
The model gave 64% on eternal premium — the map was taken by Sashi Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteSashi Academy · 51%
Series resultSashi Academy 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3