Digital Crusade Super DraculaN Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Sashi#94 in the world · win 2:1series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
AM#57 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukepossible decider
40%56%
Sashi · 6 mapsedge AM +16%AM · 14 maps
Dust2Sashi ban
27%27%
Sashi · 7 mapsnearly even +0%AM · 11 maps
AncientAM ban
57%31%
Sashi · 3 mapsedge Sashi +26%AM · 9 maps
MirageSashi ban
50%50%
Sashi · 0 mapsnearly even +0%AM · 12 maps
OverpassAM pick
60%67%
Sashi · 1 mapedge AM +7%AM · 11 maps
InfernoSashi pick
75%60%
Sashi · 4 mapsedge Sashi +15%AM · 6 maps
AnubisAM ban
60%50%
Sashi · 1 mapedge Sashi +10%AM · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSashi remove Mirage
2. BanAM remove Anubis
3. PickSashi take Inferno
4. PickAM take Overpass
5. BanAM remove Ancient
6. BanSashi remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (40% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
Sashi 48%AM 52%
The model gave 52% on AM — the map was taken by Sashi.
Ancientprediction missed14:16
Sashi 77%AM 23%
The model gave 77% on Sashi — the map was taken by AM.
Nukeprediction missed13:6
Sashi 35%AM 65%
The model gave 65% on AM — the map was taken by Sashi.
Model check result
Model favoriteSashi · 58%
Series resultSashi 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3