Digital Crusade Super DraculaN Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
INFINITE#71 in the world · win 2:0series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
FOKUS#48 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientFOKUS pick
60%54%
INFINITE · 6 mapsedge INFINITE +6%FOKUS · 9 maps
Dust2possible decider
56%62%
INFINITE · 5 mapsedge FOKUS +6%FOKUS · 9 maps
NukeFOKUS ban
36%45%
INFINITE · 7 mapsedge FOKUS +9%FOKUS · 7 maps
MirageINFINITE pick
57%43%
INFINITE · 10 mapsedge INFINITE +14%FOKUS · 3 maps
InfernoINFINITE ban
57%63%
INFINITE · 3 mapsedge FOKUS +6%FOKUS · 4 maps
OverpassINFINITE ban
40%67%
INFINITE · 1 mapedge FOKUS +27%FOKUS · 5 maps
AnubisFOKUS ban
60%50%
INFINITE · 1 mapedge INFINITE +10%FOKUS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanINFINITE remove Overpass
2. BanFOKUS remove Anubis
3. PickINFINITE take Mirage
4. PickFOKUS take Ancient
5. BanFOKUS remove Nuke
6. BanINFINITE remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (56% / 62%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:4
INFINITE 38%FOKUS 62%
The model gave 62% on FOKUS — the map was taken by INFINITE.
Mirageprediction correct13:5
INFINITE 67%FOKUS 33%
The model gave 67% on INFINITE — the map was taken by INFINITE.
Model check result
Model favoriteFOKUS · 58%
Series resultINFINITE 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2