European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Enjoy#199 in the world · win 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientEnjoy pick
50%50%
Enjoy · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Julie&Cie · 2 maps
Dust2Julie&Cie ban
67%25%
Enjoy · 2 mapsedge Enjoy +42%Julie&Cie · 4 maps
InfernoEnjoy ban
50%43%
Enjoy · 0 mapsedge Enjoy +7%Julie&Cie · 3 maps
Miragepossible decider
67%40%
Enjoy · 2 mapsedge Enjoy +27%Julie&Cie · 1 map
AnubisJulie&Cie pick
50%50%
Enjoy · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Julie&Cie · 0 maps
DefaultEnjoy ban
60%60%
Enjoy · 1 mapnearly even +0%Julie&Cie · 1 map
OverpassJulie&Cie ban
50%50%
Enjoy · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Julie&Cie · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEnjoy remove Inferno
2. BanJulie&Cie remove Dust2
3. PickEnjoy take Ancient
4. PickJulie&Cie take Anubis
5. BanJulie&Cie remove Overpass
6. BanEnjoy remove Default
DeciderMirage (67% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:5
Enjoy 53%Julie&Cie 47%
The model gave 53% on Enjoy — the map was taken by Enjoy.
Anubisprediction missed13:9
Enjoy 47%Julie&Cie 53%
The model gave 53% on Julie&Cie — the map was taken by Enjoy.
Model check result
Model favoriteEnjoy · 64%
Series resultEnjoy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2