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Digital Crusade Super DraculaN Season 1 · BO5
result vs prediction
Inner Circle#28 in the world · win 3:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Acend#125 in the world · loss 1:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAcend pick
45%59%
Inner Circle · 7 mapsedge Acend +14%Acend · 18 maps
Dust2Inner Circle pick
64%53%
Inner Circle · 7 mapsedge Inner Circle +11%Acend · 13 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%47%
Inner Circle · 4 mapsnearly even +3%Acend · 11 maps
OverpassInner Circle pick
50%38%
Inner Circle · 4 mapsedge Inner Circle +12%Acend · 9 maps
InfernoInner Circle ban
50%54%
Inner Circle · 0 mapsnearly even -4%Acend · 9 maps
NukeAcend ban
60%50%
Inner Circle · 6 mapsedge Inner Circle +10%Acend · 0 maps
DefaultAcend pick
60%71%
Inner Circle · 1 mapedge Acend +11%Acend · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanInner Circle remove Inferno
2. BanAcend remove Nuke
3. PickInner Circle take Dust2
4. PickAcend take Mirage
5. PickInner Circle take Overpass
6. PickAcend take Default
DeciderAncient (50% / 47%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
Inner Circle 34%Acend 66%
The model gave 66% on Acend — the map was taken by Acend.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
Inner Circle 64%Acend 36%
The model gave 64% on Inner Circle — the map was taken by Inner Circle.
Overpassprediction correct13:8
Inner Circle 59%Acend 41%
The model gave 59% on Inner Circle — the map was taken by Inner Circle.
Ancientprediction correct13:8
Inner Circle 56%Acend 44%
The model gave 56% on Inner Circle — the map was taken by Inner Circle.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 58%
Series resultInner Circle 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map4 of 4