Digital Crusade Super DraculaN Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Sashi#94 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Acend#125 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Sashi ban
30%50%
Sashi · 6 mapsedge Acend +20%Acend · 12 maps
MirageSashi ban
50%63%
Sashi · 0 mapsedge Acend +13%Acend · 15 maps
InfernoSashi pick
75%50%
Sashi · 4 mapsedge Sashi +25%Acend · 8 maps
AncientAcend ban
67%42%
Sashi · 2 mapsedge Sashi +25%Acend · 8 maps
Overpasspossible decider
60%33%
Sashi · 1 mapedge Sashi +27%Acend · 8 maps
NukeAcend ban
40%50%
Sashi · 6 mapsedge Acend +10%Acend · 0 maps
DefaultAcend pick
50%71%
Sashi · 0 mapsedge Acend +21%Acend · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSashi remove Mirage
2. BanAcend remove Nuke
3. PickSashi take Inferno
4. PickAcend take Default
5. BanAcend remove Ancient
6. BanSashi remove Dust2
DeciderOverpass (60% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct11:13
Sashi 28%Acend 72%
The model gave 72% on Acend — the map was taken by Acend.
Ancientprediction missed11:13
Sashi 76%Acend 24%
The model gave 76% on Sashi — the map was taken by Acend.
Model check result
Model favoriteAcend · 53%
Series resultAcend 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2