Digital Crusade Super DraculaN Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Sashi#94 in the world · win 2:1series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
9INE#80 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Sashi ban
22%33%
Sashi · 5 mapsedge 9INE +11%9INE · 2 maps
InfernoSashi pick
75%50%
Sashi · 4 mapsedge Sashi +25%9INE · 2 maps
Nuke9INE ban
44%50%
Sashi · 5 mapsedge 9INE +6%9INE · 0 maps
Ancient9INE pick
60%60%
Sashi · 1 mapnearly even +0%9INE · 1 map
AnubisSashi ban
60%40%
Sashi · 1 mapedge Sashi +20%9INE · 1 map
Overpass9INE ban
60%50%
Sashi · 1 mapedge Sashi +10%9INE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSashi remove Dust2
2. Ban9INE remove Nuke
3. PickSashi take Inferno
4. Pick9INE take Ancient
5. Ban9INE remove Overpass
6. BanSashi remove Anubis
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:10
Sashi 34%9INE 66%
The model gave 66% on 9INE — the map was taken by Sashi.
Nukeprediction correct11:13
Sashi 47%9INE 53%
The model gave 53% on 9INE — the map was taken by 9INE.
Ancientprediction correct13:6
Sashi 50%9INE 50%
The model gave 50% on Sashi — the map was taken by Sashi.
Model check result
Model favorite9INE · 57%
Series resultSashi 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3