Digital Crusade Super DraculaN Season 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Betclic#65 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukepossible decider
60%38%
Echo · 1 mapedge Echo +22%Betclic · 12 maps
AnubisBetclic pick
50%77%
Echo · 0 mapsedge Betclic +27%Betclic · 9 maps
MirageEcho ban
33%40%
Echo · 2 mapsedge Betclic +7%Betclic · 6 maps
OverpassEcho pick
38%38%
Echo · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Betclic · 4 maps
AncientBetclic ban
57%38%
Echo · 3 mapsedge Echo +19%Betclic · 4 maps
Dust2Echo ban
50%33%
Echo · 0 mapsedge Echo +17%Betclic · 5 maps
InfernoBetclic ban
50%29%
Echo · 0 mapsedge Echo +21%Betclic · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEcho remove Dust2
2. BanBetclic remove Inferno
3. PickEcho take Overpass
4. PickBetclic take Anubis
5. BanBetclic remove Ancient
6. BanEcho remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (60% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:11
Echo 21%Betclic 79%
The model gave 79% on Betclic — the map was taken by Echo.
Overpassprediction correct13:5
Echo 53%Betclic 47%
The model gave 53% on Echo — the map was taken by Echo.
Model check result
Model favoriteEcho · 59%
Series resultEcho 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2