Digital Crusade Super DraculaN Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circle#28 in the world · win 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AM#57 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAM ban
56%50%
Inner Circle · 5 mapsedge Inner Circle +6%AM · 12 maps
NukeInner Circle ban
50%53%
Inner Circle · 2 mapsnearly even -3%AM · 13 maps
AncientAM ban
43%31%
Inner Circle · 3 mapsedge Inner Circle +12%AM · 9 maps
Dust2Inner Circle pick
57%23%
Inner Circle · 3 mapsedge Inner Circle +34%AM · 9 maps
OverpassAM pick
50%77%
Inner Circle · 2 mapsedge AM +27%AM · 9 maps
InfernoInner Circle ban
50%60%
Inner Circle · 0 mapsedge AM +10%AM · 6 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%60%
Inner Circle · 1 mapnearly even +0%AM · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanInner Circle remove Inferno
2. BanAM remove Ancient
3. PickInner Circle take Dust2
4. PickAM take Overpass
5. BanAM remove Mirage
6. BanInner Circle remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction missed13:9
Inner Circle 21%AM 79%
The model gave 79% on AM — the map was taken by Inner Circle.
Dust2prediction correct13:2
Inner Circle 83%AM 17%
The model gave 83% on Inner Circle — the map was taken by Inner Circle.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 68%
Series resultInner Circle 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2