ESEA Season 57 North America Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
Chicken Coop#151 in the world · win 2:0series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Club 333#229 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernopossible decider
67%50%
Chicken Coop · 8 mapsedge Chicken Coop +17%Club 333 · 4 maps
Dust2Club 333 pick
40%56%
Chicken Coop · 6 mapsedge Club 333 +16%Club 333 · 5 maps
NukeChicken Coop ban
50%50%
Chicken Coop · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Club 333 · 4 maps
OverpassChicken Coop pick
67%50%
Chicken Coop · 8 mapsedge Chicken Coop +17%Club 333 · 0 maps
AncientClub 333 ban
70%50%
Chicken Coop · 6 mapsedge Chicken Coop +20%Club 333 · 0 maps
DefaultClub 333 ban
57%50%
Chicken Coop · 3 mapsedge Chicken Coop +7%Club 333 · 0 maps
MirageChicken Coop ban
60%50%
Chicken Coop · 1 mapedge Chicken Coop +10%Club 333 · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanChicken Coop remove Mirage
2. BanClub 333 remove Ancient
3. PickChicken Coop take Overpass
4. PickClub 333 take Dust2
5. BanClub 333 remove Default
6. BanChicken Coop remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (67% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
Chicken Coop 32%Club 333 68%
The model gave 68% on Club 333 — the map was taken by Chicken Coop.
Infernoprediction correct13:4
Chicken Coop 69%Club 333 31%
The model gave 69% on Chicken Coop — the map was taken by Chicken Coop.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Coop · 81%
Series resultChicken Coop 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2