Stake Ranked Episode 3 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
FOKUS#48 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Phantom#88 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Phantom pick
64%69%
FOKUS · 7 mapsedge Phantom +5%Phantom · 12 maps
MiragePhantom ban
43%41%
FOKUS · 3 mapsnearly even +2%Phantom · 13 maps
AncientFOKUS pick
64%50%
FOKUS · 7 mapsedge FOKUS +14%Phantom · 8 maps
NukeFOKUS ban
50%54%
FOKUS · 4 mapsnearly even -4%Phantom · 9 maps
Overpasspossible decider
63%67%
FOKUS · 4 mapsnearly even -4%Phantom · 8 maps
InfernoPhantom ban
63%50%
FOKUS · 4 mapsedge FOKUS +13%Phantom · 0 maps
AnubisFOKUS ban
50%60%
FOKUS · 0 mapsedge Phantom +10%Phantom · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFOKUS remove Anubis
2. BanPhantom remove Inferno
3. PickFOKUS take Ancient
4. PickPhantom take Dust2
5. BanPhantom remove Mirage
6. BanFOKUS remove Nuke
DeciderOverpass (63% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:10
FOKUS 41%Phantom 59%
The model gave 59% on Phantom — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Ancientprediction missed7:13
FOKUS 66%Phantom 34%
The model gave 66% on FOKUS — the map was taken by Phantom.
Nukeprediction correct16:19
FOKUS 46%Phantom 54%
The model gave 54% on Phantom — the map was taken by Phantom.
Model check result
Model favoriteFOKUS · 66%
Series resultPhantom 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3