Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
STATE#137 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeSTATE pick
53%58%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 11 mapsedge STATE +5%STATE · 8 maps
Cacheex-Zero Tenacity pick
80%50%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 11 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +30%STATE · 4 maps
Dust2STATE ban
56%50%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 14 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +6%STATE · 0 maps
Mirageex-Zero Tenacity ban
67%57%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 8 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +10%STATE · 3 maps
Infernopossible decider
60%57%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 6 mapsnearly even +3%STATE · 3 maps
AnubisSTATE ban
50%33%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 6 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +17%STATE · 2 maps
Ancientex-Zero Tenacity ban
50%36%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 0 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +14%STATE · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Ancient
2. BanSTATE remove Dust2
3. Pickex-Zero Tenacity take Cache
4. PickSTATE take Nuke
5. BanSTATE remove Anubis
6. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (60% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:9
ex-Zero Tenacity 48%STATE 52%
The model gave 52% on STATE — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Infernoprediction missed13:9
ex-Zero Tenacity 50%STATE 50%
The model gave 50% on STATE — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-Zero Tenacity · 61%
Series resultex-Zero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2