Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
pre-match predictionseries probability
61%39%
model: map winrate + form + head-to-head
STATE#173 in the worldBefore the match the model relies on historical data: each team's winrate on every map in the pool over 3 months, current form and head-to-head. Once the veto happens, the prediction is recalculated for the real map pool.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeSTATE pick
50%58%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 12 mapsedge STATE +8%STATE · 8 maps
Dust2STATE ban
58%50%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 15 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +8%STATE · 0 maps
Cacheex-Zero Tenacity pick
79%57%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 10 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +22%STATE · 3 maps
Infernopossible decider
55%57%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 7 mapsnearly even -2%STATE · 3 maps
Mirageex-Zero Tenacity ban
64%57%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 7 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +7%STATE · 3 maps
AnubisSTATE ban
50%33%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 6 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +17%STATE · 2 maps
Ancientex-Zero Tenacity ban
50%40%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 0 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +10%STATE · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Ancient
2. BanSTATE remove Dust2
3. Pickex-Zero Tenacity take Cache
4. PickSTATE take Nuke
5. BanSTATE remove Anubis
6. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (55% / 57%)