Stake Ranked Episode 3 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Inner Circle#28 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientEcho ban
50%50%
Echo · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Inner Circle · 2 maps
MirageInner Circle pick
50%50%
Echo · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Inner Circle · 4 maps
Dust2Echo ban
50%57%
Echo · 0 mapsedge Inner Circle +7%Inner Circle · 3 maps
NukeInner Circle ban
60%50%
Echo · 1 mapedge Echo +10%Inner Circle · 2 maps
OverpassInner Circle ban
33%60%
Echo · 2 mapsedge Inner Circle +27%Inner Circle · 1 map
DefaultEcho pick
50%60%
Echo · 0 mapsedge Inner Circle +10%Inner Circle · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEcho remove Dust2
2. BanInner Circle remove Overpass
3. PickEcho take Default
4. PickInner Circle take Mirage
5. BanInner Circle remove Nuke
6. BanEcho remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction missed13:4
Echo 27%Inner Circle 73%
The model gave 73% on Inner Circle — the map was taken by Echo.
Mirageprediction correct6:13
Echo 47%Inner Circle 53%
The model gave 53% on Inner Circle — the map was taken by Inner Circle.
Ancientprediction correct13:8
Echo 50%Inner Circle 50%
The model gave 50% on Echo — the map was taken by Echo.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 58%
Series resultEcho 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3