ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Arcade#198 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageFruju ban
50%42%
Fruju · 0 mapsedge Fruju +8%Arcade · 8 maps
NukeArcade ban
50%36%
Fruju · 0 mapsedge Fruju +14%Arcade · 7 maps
InfernoFruju ban
50%70%
Fruju · 0 mapsedge Arcade +20%Arcade · 6 maps
CacheArcade pick
50%56%
Fruju · 0 mapsedge Arcade +6%Arcade · 5 maps
Dust2Fruju pick
50%33%
Fruju · 0 mapsedge Fruju +17%Arcade · 5 maps
AncientArcade ban
50%33%
Fruju · 0 mapsedge Fruju +17%Arcade · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFruju remove Inferno
2. BanArcade remove Ancient
3. PickFruju take Dust2
4. PickArcade take Cache
5. BanArcade remove Nuke
6. BanFruju remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct7:13
Fruju 33%Arcade 67%
The model gave 67% on Arcade — the map was taken by Arcade.
Cacheprediction correct9:13
Fruju 42%Arcade 58%
The model gave 58% on Arcade — the map was taken by Arcade.
Model check result
Model favoriteArcade · 66%
Series resultArcade 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2