ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ground Zero#139 in the world · win 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Abyssal#165 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Abyssal pick
47%67%
Ground Zero · 13 mapsedge Abyssal +20%Abyssal · 5 maps
NukeGround Zero pick
69%43%
Ground Zero · 9 mapsedge Ground Zero +26%Abyssal · 3 maps
AnubisAbyssal ban
54%40%
Ground Zero · 9 mapsedge Ground Zero +14%Abyssal · 1 map
MirageGround Zero ban
50%75%
Ground Zero · 2 mapsedge Abyssal +25%Abyssal · 8 maps
InfernoAbyssal ban
56%38%
Ground Zero · 5 mapsedge Ground Zero +18%Abyssal · 4 maps
AncientGround Zero ban
57%50%
Ground Zero · 3 mapsedge Ground Zero +7%Abyssal · 2 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%40%
Ground Zero · 1 mapedge Ground Zero +20%Abyssal · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGround Zero remove Mirage
2. BanAbyssal remove Anubis
3. PickGround Zero take Nuke
4. PickAbyssal take Dust2
5. BanAbyssal remove Inferno
6. BanGround Zero remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (60% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:11
Ground Zero 65%Abyssal 35%
The model gave 65% on Ground Zero — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Nukeprediction correct13:10
Ground Zero 77%Abyssal 23%
The model gave 77% on Ground Zero — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Model check result
Model favoriteGround Zero · 66%
Series resultGround Zero 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2