ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheLFO 8 pick
40%56%
Fruju · 1 mapedge LFO 8 +16%LFO 8 · 5 maps
InfernoFruju ban
40%63%
Fruju · 1 mapedge LFO 8 +23%LFO 8 · 4 maps
Dust2Fruju ban
50%38%
Fruju · 0 mapsedge Fruju +12%LFO 8 · 4 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%50%
Fruju · 0 mapsnearly even +0%LFO 8 · 4 maps
AncientLFO 8 ban
50%43%
Fruju · 0 mapsedge Fruju +7%LFO 8 · 3 maps
DefaultFruju pick
50%33%
Fruju · 0 mapsedge Fruju +17%LFO 8 · 2 maps
MirageLFO 8 ban
50%40%
Fruju · 0 mapsedge Fruju +10%LFO 8 · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFruju remove Dust2
2. BanLFO 8 remove Mirage
3. PickFruju take Default
4. PickLFO 8 take Cache
5. BanLFO 8 remove Ancient
6. BanFruju remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
Fruju 60%LFO 8 40%
The model gave 60% on Fruju — the map was taken by LFO 8.
Infernoprediction correct4:13
Fruju 31%LFO 8 69%
The model gave 69% on LFO 8 — the map was taken by LFO 8.
Model check result
Model favoriteLFO 8 · 66%
Series resultLFO 8 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2