ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Mindfreak#213 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoMindfreak pick
42%67%
Mindfreak · 15 mapsedge LFO 8 +25%LFO 8 · 5 maps
NukeLFO 8 pick
38%50%
Mindfreak · 9 mapsedge LFO 8 +12%LFO 8 · 4 maps
MirageLFO 8 ban
67%40%
Mindfreak · 8 mapsedge Mindfreak +27%LFO 8 · 1 map
Dust2LFO 8 ban
33%44%
Mindfreak · 2 mapsedge LFO 8 +11%LFO 8 · 5 maps
Ancientpossible decider
43%43%
Mindfreak · 3 mapsnearly even +0%LFO 8 · 3 maps
CacheMindfreak ban
40%56%
Mindfreak · 1 mapedge LFO 8 +16%LFO 8 · 5 maps
AnubisMindfreak ban
33%50%
Mindfreak · 5 mapsedge LFO 8 +17%LFO 8 · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMindfreak remove Cache
2. BanLFO 8 remove Mirage
3. PickMindfreak take Inferno
4. PickLFO 8 take Nuke
5. BanLFO 8 remove Dust2
6. BanMindfreak remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (43% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct17:19
Mindfreak 36%LFO 8 64%
The model gave 64% on LFO 8 — the map was taken by LFO 8.
Nukeprediction missed13:11
Mindfreak 41%LFO 8 59%
The model gave 59% on LFO 8 — the map was taken by Mindfreak.
Ancientprediction missed4:13
Mindfreak 50%LFO 8 50%
The model gave 50% on Mindfreak — the map was taken by LFO 8.
Model check result
Model favoriteLFO 8 · 58%
Series resultLFO 8 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3