ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rooster#196 in the world · win 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoLFO 8 pick
50%67%
Rooster · 6 mapsedge LFO 8 +17%LFO 8 · 5 maps
NukeRooster ban
40%44%
Rooster · 6 mapsnearly even -4%LFO 8 · 5 maps
Dust2LFO 8 ban
43%50%
Rooster · 3 mapsedge LFO 8 +7%LFO 8 · 6 maps
Cachepossible decider
67%56%
Rooster · 2 mapsedge Rooster +11%LFO 8 · 5 maps
AnubisRooster pick
50%50%
Rooster · 6 mapsnearly even +0%LFO 8 · 0 maps
MirageLFO 8 ban
44%40%
Rooster · 5 mapsnearly even +4%LFO 8 · 1 map
AncientRooster ban
50%50%
Rooster · 0 mapsnearly even +0%LFO 8 · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRooster remove Ancient
2. BanLFO 8 remove Mirage
3. PickRooster take Anubis
4. PickLFO 8 take Inferno
5. BanLFO 8 remove Dust2
6. BanRooster remove Nuke
DeciderCache (67% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:9
Rooster 31%LFO 8 69%
The model gave 69% on LFO 8 — the map was taken by Rooster.
Anubisprediction correct13:1
Rooster 53%LFO 8 47%
The model gave 53% on Rooster — the map was taken by Rooster.
Model check result
Model favoriteRooster · 54%
Series resultRooster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2