CCT 2026 Europe Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemesis#43 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TDK#86 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNemesis ban
50%64%
Nemesis · 8 mapsedge TDK +14%TDK · 10 maps
Dust2TDK pick
56%76%
Nemesis · 5 mapsedge TDK +20%TDK · 13 maps
MirageTDK ban
64%46%
Nemesis · 7 mapsedge Nemesis +18%TDK · 9 maps
OverpassNemesis ban
50%76%
Nemesis · 2 mapsedge TDK +26%TDK · 13 maps
InfernoNemesis pick
64%40%
Nemesis · 7 mapsedge Nemesis +24%TDK · 6 maps
NukeTDK ban
77%40%
Nemesis · 9 mapsedge Nemesis +37%TDK · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
67%67%
Nemesis · 2 mapsnearly even +0%TDK · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemesis remove Overpass
2. BanTDK remove Nuke
3. PickNemesis take Inferno
4. PickTDK take Dust2
5. BanTDK remove Mirage
6. BanNemesis remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (67% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
Nemesis 70%TDK 30%
The model gave 70% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Overpassprediction correct5:13
Nemesis 21%TDK 79%
The model gave 79% on TDK — the map was taken by TDK.
Dust2prediction correct7:13
Nemesis 28%TDK 72%
The model gave 72% on TDK — the map was taken by TDK.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemesis · 57%
Series resultTDK 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3