European Pro League Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
INFINITE#71 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Walczaki#149 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeWalczaki pick
44%61%
INFINITE · 5 mapsedge Walczaki +17%Walczaki · 24 maps
Ancientpossible decider
56%63%
INFINITE · 5 mapsedge Walczaki +7%Walczaki · 15 maps
Dust2Walczaki ban
63%47%
INFINITE · 4 mapsedge INFINITE +16%Walczaki · 13 maps
MirageWalczaki ban
62%75%
INFINITE · 9 mapsedge Walczaki +13%Walczaki · 8 maps
AnubisINFINITE ban
60%75%
INFINITE · 1 mapedge Walczaki +15%Walczaki · 12 maps
InfernoINFINITE ban
50%60%
INFINITE · 2 mapsedge Walczaki +10%Walczaki · 11 maps
DefaultINFINITE pick
50%56%
INFINITE · 0 mapsedge Walczaki +6%Walczaki · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanINFINITE remove Anubis
2. BanWalczaki remove Dust2
3. PickINFINITE take Default
4. PickWalczaki take Nuke
5. BanWalczaki remove Mirage
6. BanINFINITE remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (56% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct2:13
INFINITE 31%Walczaki 69%
The model gave 69% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Dust2prediction missed4:13
INFINITE 68%Walczaki 32%
The model gave 68% on INFINITE — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Model check result
Model favoriteWalczaki · 58%
Series resultWalczaki 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2