ESEA Season 57 Europe Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
Arch#247 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
WBT#108 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2WBT ban
63%60%
Arch · 4 mapsnearly even +3%WBT · 1 map
AncientWBT ban
67%33%
Arch · 2 mapsedge Arch +34%WBT · 2 maps
AnubisWBT pick
29%60%
Arch · 3 mapsedge WBT +31%WBT · 1 map
MirageArch pick
57%60%
Arch · 3 mapsnearly even -3%WBT · 1 map
NukeArch ban
50%40%
Arch · 0 mapsedge Arch +10%WBT · 1 map
OverpassArch ban
50%60%
Arch · 0 mapsedge WBT +10%WBT · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanArch remove Nuke
2. BanWBT remove Ancient
3. PickArch take Mirage
4. PickWBT take Anubis
5. BanWBT remove Dust2
6. BanArch remove Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction correct9:13
Arch 37%WBT 63%
The model gave 63% on WBT — the map was taken by WBT.
Mirageprediction missed8:13
Arch 50%WBT 50%
The model gave 50% on Arch — the map was taken by WBT.
Model check result
Model favoriteWBT · 53%
Series resultWBT 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2