ESEA Season 57 Europe Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
QUAZAR#94 in the world · win 1:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Hermineloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeHermine ban
67%50%
QUAZAR · 2 mapsedge QUAZAR +17%Hermine · 0 maps
AnubisQUAZAR pick
60%50%
QUAZAR · 1 mapedge QUAZAR +10%Hermine · 0 maps
Dust2Hermine pick
60%50%
QUAZAR · 1 mapedge QUAZAR +10%Hermine · 0 maps
InfernoQUAZAR ban
60%50%
QUAZAR · 1 mapedge QUAZAR +10%Hermine · 0 maps
MirageHermine ban
60%50%
QUAZAR · 1 mapedge QUAZAR +10%Hermine · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanQUAZAR remove Inferno
2. BanHermine remove Nuke
3. PickQUAZAR take Anubis
4. PickHermine take Dust2
5. BanHermine remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
QUAZAR 50%Hermine 50%
The model gave 50% on QUAZAR — the map was taken by QUAZAR.
Model check result
Model favoriteQUAZAR · 63%
Series resultQUAZAR 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1