Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 2:0
INOX Division#66 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-Zero Tenacity pick
56%64%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 14 mapsedge INOX Division +8%INOX Division · 18 maps
InfernoINOX Division pick
64%69%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 7 mapsedge INOX Division +5%INOX Division · 25 maps
Nukeex-Zero Tenacity ban
56%71%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 12 mapsedge INOX Division +15%INOX Division · 20 maps
CacheINOX Division ban
80%50%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 11 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +30%INOX Division · 6 maps
Ancientex-Zero Tenacity ban
50%60%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 0 mapsedge INOX Division +10%INOX Division · 16 maps
AnubisINOX Division ban
50%54%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 6 mapsnearly even -4%INOX Division · 9 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%50%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 4 mapsnearly even +0%INOX Division · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Ancient
2. BanINOX Division remove Cache
3. Pickex-Zero Tenacity take Dust2
4. PickINOX Division take Inferno
5. BanINOX Division remove Anubis
6. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:3
ex-Zero Tenacity 41%INOX Division 59%
The model gave 59% on INOX Division — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Cacheprediction correct16:13
ex-Zero Tenacity 82%INOX Division 18%
The model gave 82% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteINOX Division · 73%
Series resultex-Zero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2