Stake Ranked Episode 3 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
K27#44 in the world · win 2:0series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeK27 ban
33%50%
K27 · 5 mapsedge SHISHKA +17%SHISHKA · 4 maps
AncientSHISHKA ban
56%43%
K27 · 5 mapsedge K27 +13%SHISHKA · 3 maps
Dust2SHISHKA pick
57%57%
K27 · 3 mapsnearly even +0%SHISHKA · 3 maps
OverpassK27 pick
50%40%
K27 · 4 mapsedge K27 +10%SHISHKA · 1 map
MirageSHISHKA ban
50%50%
K27 · 4 mapsnearly even +0%SHISHKA · 0 maps
AnubisK27 ban
43%50%
K27 · 3 mapsedge SHISHKA +7%SHISHKA · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanK27 remove Nuke
2. BanSHISHKA remove Mirage
3. PickK27 take Overpass
4. PickSHISHKA take Dust2
5. BanSHISHKA remove Ancient
6. BanK27 remove Anubis
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:8
K27 47%SHISHKA 53%
The model gave 53% on SHISHKA — the map was taken by K27.
Ancientprediction correct13:3
K27 65%SHISHKA 35%
The model gave 65% on K27 — the map was taken by K27.
Model check result
Model favoriteK27 · 82%
Series resultK27 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2