IEM Cologne Major 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
9z#17 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 1:2
FURIA#4 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2FURIA ban
50%38%
9z · 10 mapsedge 9z +12%FURIA · 4 maps
InfernoFURIA pick
58%67%
9z · 8 mapsedge FURIA +9%FURIA · 5 maps
Mirage9z ban
36%60%
9z · 7 mapsedge FURIA +24%FURIA · 6 maps
Nukepossible decider
55%50%
9z · 7 mapsedge 9z +5%FURIA · 6 maps
Overpass9z pick
75%67%
9z · 8 mapsedge 9z +8%FURIA · 5 maps
AncientFURIA ban
56%50%
9z · 5 mapsedge 9z +6%FURIA · 0 maps
Anubis9z ban
40%50%
9z · 1 mapedge FURIA +10%FURIA · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban9z remove Anubis
2. BanFURIA remove Ancient
3. Pick9z take Overpass
4. PickFURIA take Inferno
5. BanFURIA remove Dust2
6. Ban9z remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (55% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
9z 65%FURIA 35%
The model gave 65% on 9z — the map was taken by 9z.
Mirageprediction correct9:13
9z 25%FURIA 75%
The model gave 75% on FURIA — the map was taken by FURIA.
Overpassprediction missed6:13
9z 60%FURIA 40%
The model gave 60% on 9z — the map was taken by FURIA.
Model check result
Model favoriteFURIA · 71%
Series resultFURIA 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3