CCT 2026 Europe Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
100 Thieves#37 in the world · win 2:1series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Leo#89 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Leo pick
75%71%
100 Thieves · 8 mapsnearly even +4%Leo · 13 maps
Ancient100 Thieves pick
56%45%
100 Thieves · 12 mapsedge 100 Thieves +11%Leo · 7 maps
Anubis100 Thieves ban
60%33%
100 Thieves · 1 mapedge 100 Thieves +27%Leo · 11 maps
Mirage100 Thieves ban
55%63%
100 Thieves · 7 mapsedge Leo +8%Leo · 4 maps
NukeLeo ban
55%38%
100 Thieves · 7 mapsedge 100 Thieves +17%Leo · 4 maps
Infernopossible decider
55%60%
100 Thieves · 7 mapsedge Leo +5%Leo · 1 map
OverpassLeo ban
60%50%
100 Thieves · 1 mapedge 100 Thieves +10%Leo · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban100 Thieves remove Anubis
2. BanLeo remove Overpass
3. Pick100 Thieves take Ancient
4. PickLeo take Dust2
5. BanLeo remove Nuke
6. Ban100 Thieves remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (55% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed5:13
100 Thieves 69%Leo 31%
The model gave 69% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by Leo.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
100 Thieves 53%Leo 47%
The model gave 53% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Ancientprediction correct16:12
100 Thieves 61%Leo 39%
The model gave 61% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Model check result
Model favorite100 Thieves · 72%
Series result100 Thieves 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3