Stake Ranked Episode 3 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circle#28 in the world · win 2:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Spirit Academy#111 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageSpirit Academy pick
50%40%
Inner Circle · 4 mapsedge Inner Circle +10%Spirit Academy · 1 map
AncientSpirit Academy ban
50%50%
Inner Circle · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Spirit Academy · 0 maps
Dust2Inner Circle pick
50%50%
Inner Circle · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Spirit Academy · 0 maps
NukeInner Circle ban
40%60%
Inner Circle · 1 mapedge Spirit Academy +20%Spirit Academy · 1 map
OverpassInner Circle ban
60%60%
Inner Circle · 1 mapnearly even +0%Spirit Academy · 1 map
DefaultSpirit Academy ban
60%50%
Inner Circle · 1 mapedge Inner Circle +10%Spirit Academy · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanInner Circle remove Overpass
2. BanSpirit Academy remove Default
3. PickInner Circle take Dust2
4. PickSpirit Academy take Mirage
5. BanSpirit Academy remove Ancient
6. BanInner Circle remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:7
Inner Circle 28%Spirit Academy 72%
The model gave 72% on Spirit Academy — the map was taken by Inner Circle.
Dust2prediction correct13:1
Inner Circle 53%Spirit Academy 47%
The model gave 53% on Inner Circle — the map was taken by Inner Circle.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 79%
Series resultInner Circle 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2