Stake Ranked Episode 3 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
JiJieHao#47 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Phantom#88 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
56%41%
JiJieHao · 5 mapsedge JiJieHao +15%Phantom · 13 maps
AncientJiJieHao pick
67%45%
JiJieHao · 8 mapsedge JiJieHao +22%Phantom · 7 maps
Dust2Phantom pick
50%67%
JiJieHao · 4 mapsedge Phantom +17%Phantom · 11 maps
NukeJiJieHao ban
40%54%
JiJieHao · 1 mapedge Phantom +14%Phantom · 9 maps
OverpassJiJieHao ban
50%64%
JiJieHao · 0 mapsedge Phantom +14%Phantom · 7 maps
InfernoPhantom ban
70%50%
JiJieHao · 6 mapsedge JiJieHao +20%Phantom · 0 maps
AnubisPhantom ban
50%50%
JiJieHao · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Phantom · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJiJieHao remove Nuke
2. BanPhantom remove Inferno
3. PickJiJieHao take Ancient
4. PickPhantom take Dust2
5. BanPhantom remove Anubis
6. BanJiJieHao remove Overpass
DeciderMirage (56% / 41%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction correct11:13
JiJieHao 34%Phantom 66%
The model gave 66% on Phantom — the map was taken by Phantom.
Ancientprediction missed14:16
JiJieHao 73%Phantom 27%
The model gave 73% on JiJieHao — the map was taken by Phantom.
Model check result
Model favoriteJiJieHao · 65%
Series resultPhantom 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2