European Pro League Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
TDK#86 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Walczaki#149 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
64%63%
TDK · 10 mapsnearly even +1%Walczaki · 15 maps
Dust2TDK pick
75%50%
TDK · 12 mapsedge TDK +25%Walczaki · 12 maps
NukeTDK ban
40%59%
TDK · 1 mapedge Walczaki +19%Walczaki · 23 maps
MirageTDK ban
46%75%
TDK · 9 mapsedge Walczaki +29%Walczaki · 8 maps
AnubisWalczaki pick
50%73%
TDK · 4 mapsedge Walczaki +23%Walczaki · 11 maps
OverpassWalczaki ban
76%33%
TDK · 13 mapsedge TDK +43%Walczaki · 2 maps
InfernoWalczaki ban
44%54%
TDK · 5 mapsedge Walczaki +10%Walczaki · 9 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTDK remove Nuke
2. BanWalczaki remove Overpass
3. PickTDK take Dust2
4. PickWalczaki take Anubis
5. BanWalczaki remove Inferno
6. BanTDK remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (64% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct7:13
TDK 38%Walczaki 62%
The model gave 62% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
TDK 77%Walczaki 23%
The model gave 77% on TDK — the map was taken by TDK.
Anubisprediction correct4:13
TDK 27%Walczaki 73%
The model gave 73% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Model check result
Model favoriteWalczaki · 52%
Series resultWalczaki 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3