Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Bushido Wildcats#73 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Bushido Wildcats pick
61%72%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 14 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +11%Bushido Wildcats · 28 maps
NukeBushido Wildcats ban
59%55%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 13 mapsnearly even +4%Bushido Wildcats · 16 maps
Miragepossible decider
67%58%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 8 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +9%Bushido Wildcats · 20 maps
Cacheex-Zero Tenacity pick
76%58%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 13 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +18%Bushido Wildcats · 8 maps
InfernoBushido Wildcats ban
67%50%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 8 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +17%Bushido Wildcats · 8 maps
Anubisex-Zero Tenacity ban
50%70%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 6 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +20%Bushido Wildcats · 6 maps
Defaultex-Zero Tenacity ban
50%75%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 4 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +25%Bushido Wildcats · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Anubis
2. BanBushido Wildcats remove Inferno
3. Pickex-Zero Tenacity take Cache
4. PickBushido Wildcats take Dust2
5. BanBushido Wildcats remove Nuke
6. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Default
DeciderMirage (67% / 58%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct14:16
ex-Zero Tenacity 35%Bushido Wildcats 65%
The model gave 65% on Bushido Wildcats — the map was taken by Bushido Wildcats.
Infernoprediction correct13:7
ex-Zero Tenacity 69%Bushido Wildcats 31%
The model gave 69% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Nukeprediction correct13:5
ex-Zero Tenacity 54%Bushido Wildcats 46%
The model gave 54% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteBushido Wildcats · 59%
Series resultex-Zero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3