NODWIN Clutch Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nuclear TigeRES#54 in the world · win 2:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemesis#43 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeNemesis pick
62%75%
Nuclear TigeRES · 9 mapsedge Nemesis +13%Nemesis · 8 maps
AncientNuclear TigeRES pick
54%55%
Nuclear TigeRES · 9 mapsnearly even -1%Nemesis · 7 maps
Dust2Nuclear TigeRES ban
50%63%
Nuclear TigeRES · 12 mapsedge Nemesis +13%Nemesis · 4 maps
AnubisNemesis ban
78%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 14 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +28%Nemesis · 0 maps
MirageNemesis ban
67%64%
Nuclear TigeRES · 5 mapsnearly even +3%Nemesis · 7 maps
Infernopossible decider
67%64%
Nuclear TigeRES · 2 mapsnearly even +3%Nemesis · 7 maps
OverpassNuclear TigeRES ban
50%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Nemesis · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Overpass
2. BanNemesis remove Anubis
3. PickNuclear TigeRES take Ancient
4. PickNemesis take Nuke
5. BanNemesis remove Mirage
6. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (67% / 64%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct10:13
Nuclear TigeRES 32%Nemesis 68%
The model gave 68% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Dust2prediction missed13:9
Nuclear TigeRES 40%Nemesis 60%
The model gave 60% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Ancientprediction missed13:7
Nuclear TigeRES 49%Nemesis 51%
The model gave 51% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuclear TigeRES · 53%
Series resultNuclear TigeRES 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3