European Pro League Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
SPARTA#96 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 1:2
INOX Division#66 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2SPARTA pick
60%75%
SPARTA · 21 mapedge INOX Division +15%INOX Division · 16 maps
NukeINOX Division pick
44%68%
SPARTA · 12 mapsedge INOX Division +24%INOX Division · 18 maps
AncientINOX Division ban
29%58%
SPARTA · 13 mapsedge INOX Division +29%INOX Division · 8 maps
InfernoSPARTA ban
50%59%
SPARTA · 8 mapsedge INOX Division +9%INOX Division · 13 maps
Overpasspossible decider
50%53%
SPARTA · 6 mapsnearly even -3%INOX Division · 11 maps
MirageINOX Division ban
44%50%
SPARTA · 12 mapsedge INOX Division +6%INOX Division · 0 maps
AnubisSPARTA ban
50%40%
SPARTA · 0 mapsedge SPARTA +10%INOX Division · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSPARTA remove Anubis
2. BanINOX Division remove Mirage
3. PickSPARTA take Dust2
4. PickINOX Division take Nuke
5. BanINOX Division remove Ancient
6. BanSPARTA remove Inferno
DeciderOverpass (50% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:10
SPARTA 24%INOX Division 76%
The model gave 76% on INOX Division — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Overpassprediction correct7:13
SPARTA 50%INOX Division 50%
The model gave 50% on INOX Division — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Dust2prediction correct3:13
SPARTA 33%INOX Division 67%
The model gave 67% on INOX Division — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Model check result
Model favoriteINOX Division · 71%
Series resultINOX Division 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3