DFRAG Open Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rooster#196 in the world · win 2:1series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:1
DXA#220 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2DXA ban
50%50%
Rooster · 4 mapsnearly even +0%DXA · 2 maps
OverpassDXA pick
29%57%
Rooster · 3 mapsedge DXA +28%DXA · 3 maps
InfernoRooster pick
71%50%
Rooster · 3 mapsedge Rooster +21%DXA · 2 maps
AncientRooster ban
50%57%
Rooster · 0 mapsedge DXA +7%DXA · 3 maps
Anubispossible decider
60%33%
Rooster · 1 mapedge Rooster +27%DXA · 2 maps
MirageDXA ban
57%50%
Rooster · 3 mapsedge Rooster +7%DXA · 0 maps
NukeRooster ban
43%50%
Rooster · 3 mapsedge DXA +7%DXA · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRooster remove Ancient
2. BanDXA remove Mirage
3. PickRooster take Inferno
4. PickDXA take Overpass
5. BanDXA remove Dust2
6. BanRooster remove Nuke
DeciderAnubis (60% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed1:13
Rooster 69%DXA 31%
The model gave 69% on Rooster — the map was taken by DXA.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
Rooster 53%DXA 47%
The model gave 53% on Rooster — the map was taken by Rooster.
Anubisprediction correct13:5
Rooster 75%DXA 25%
The model gave 75% on Rooster — the map was taken by Rooster.
Model check result
Model favoriteRooster · 68%
Series resultRooster 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3