NODWIN Clutch Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
K27#44 in the world · win 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
100 Thieves#37 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
50%60%
K27 · 4 mapsedge 100 Thieves +10%100 Thieves · 11 maps
NukeK27 ban
38%55%
K27 · 4 mapsedge 100 Thieves +17%100 Thieves · 7 maps
Mirage100 Thieves ban
43%55%
K27 · 3 mapsedge 100 Thieves +12%100 Thieves · 7 maps
Dust2100 Thieves pick
50%82%
K27 · 2 mapsedge 100 Thieves +32%100 Thieves · 7 maps
InfernoK27 ban
50%55%
K27 · 0 mapsedge 100 Thieves +5%100 Thieves · 7 maps
OverpassK27 pick
50%60%
K27 · 4 mapsedge 100 Thieves +10%100 Thieves · 1 map
Anubis100 Thieves ban
50%60%
K27 · 2 mapsedge 100 Thieves +10%100 Thieves · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanK27 remove Inferno
2. Ban100 Thieves remove Anubis
3. PickK27 take Overpass
4. Pick100 Thieves take Dust2
5. Ban100 Thieves remove Mirage
6. BanK27 remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:9
K27 16%100 Thieves 84%
The model gave 84% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by K27.
Ancientprediction missed16:13
K27 43%100 Thieves 57%
The model gave 57% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by K27.
Model check result
Model favoriteK27 · 51%
Series resultK27 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2