NODWIN Clutch Series 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemesis#43 in the world · win 2:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SPARTA#89 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Nemesis ban
58%67%
Nemesis · 8 mapsedge SPARTA +9%SPARTA · 38 maps
AncientSPARTA ban
53%44%
Nemesis · 11 mapsedge Nemesis +9%SPARTA · 21 map
MirageSPARTA pick
64%56%
Nemesis · 7 mapsedge Nemesis +8%SPARTA · 23 maps
NukeNemesis pick
70%52%
Nemesis · 6 mapsedge Nemesis +18%SPARTA · 19 maps
InfernoSPARTA ban
46%56%
Nemesis · 9 mapsedge SPARTA +10%SPARTA · 12 maps
CacheNemesis ban
40%47%
Nemesis · 1 mapedge SPARTA +7%SPARTA · 11 maps
Defaultpossible decider
43%33%
Nemesis · 3 mapsedge Nemesis +10%SPARTA · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemesis remove Dust2
2. BanSPARTA remove Ancient
3. PickNemesis take Nuke
4. PickSPARTA take Mirage
5. BanSPARTA remove Inferno
6. BanNemesis remove Cache
DeciderDefault (43% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:7
Nemesis 38%SPARTA 62%
The model gave 62% on SPARTA — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Nukeprediction correct16:12
Nemesis 71%SPARTA 29%
The model gave 71% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemesis · 79%
Series resultNemesis 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2