IEM Cologne Major 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere#10 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 1:2
G2#7 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNatus Vincere pick
75%50%
Natus Vincere · 8 mapsedge Natus Vincere +25%G2 · 8 maps
Dust2G2 pick
30%43%
Natus Vincere · 6 mapsedge G2 +13%G2 · 10 maps
Miragepossible decider
78%58%
Natus Vincere · 5 mapsedge Natus Vincere +20%G2 · 8 maps
InfernoNatus Vincere ban
63%56%
Natus Vincere · 4 mapsedge Natus Vincere +7%G2 · 5 maps
AnubisG2 ban
50%33%
Natus Vincere · 6 mapsedge Natus Vincere +17%G2 · 2 maps
OverpassNatus Vincere ban
50%70%
Natus Vincere · 0 mapsedge G2 +20%G2 · 6 maps
NukeG2 ban
43%50%
Natus Vincere · 3 mapsedge G2 +7%G2 · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNatus Vincere remove Overpass
2. BanG2 remove Nuke
3. PickNatus Vincere take Ancient
4. PickG2 take Dust2
5. BanG2 remove Anubis
6. BanNatus Vincere remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (78% / 58%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
Natus Vincere 34%G2 66%
The model gave 66% on G2 — the map was taken by Natus Vincere.
Infernoprediction missed14:16
Natus Vincere 60%G2 40%
The model gave 60% on Natus Vincere — the map was taken by G2.
Mirageprediction missed10:13
Natus Vincere 71%G2 29%
The model gave 71% on Natus Vincere — the map was taken by G2.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 80%
Series resultG2 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3