NODWIN Clutch Series 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nuclear TigeRES#54 in the world · win 2:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisNuclear TigeRES pick
61%56%
Nuclear TigeRES · 14 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +5%Color · 5 maps
Dust2Color pick
62%71%
Nuclear TigeRES · 9 mapsedge Color +9%Color · 10 maps
Ancientpossible decider
63%70%
Nuclear TigeRES · 12 mapsedge Color +7%Color · 6 maps
MirageNuclear TigeRES ban
33%64%
Nuclear TigeRES · 5 mapsedge Color +31%Color · 7 maps
NukeColor ban
50%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 10 mapsnearly even +0%Color · 0 maps
CacheNuclear TigeRES ban
71%44%
Nuclear TigeRES · 3 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +27%Color · 5 maps
InfernoColor ban
75%57%
Nuclear TigeRES · 4 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +18%Color · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Mirage
2. BanColor remove Nuke
3. PickNuclear TigeRES take Anubis
4. PickColor take Dust2
5. BanColor remove Inferno
6. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Cache
DeciderAncient (63% / 70%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct9:13
Nuclear TigeRES 36%Color 64%
The model gave 64% on Color — the map was taken by Color.
Infernoprediction correct13:2
Nuclear TigeRES 72%Color 28%
The model gave 72% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Ancientprediction missed13:8
Nuclear TigeRES 42%Color 58%
The model gave 58% on Color — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuclear TigeRES · 55%
Series resultNuclear TigeRES 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3